Fed Minutes, Delta & Pepsi Earnings: Three Key Events for Markets Next Week

U.S. markets face a packed week of events as investors hunt for clues on the Fed's rate path and gauge whether the upcoming earnings season can sustain the rally. After a volatile week for tech stocks, the spotlight turns to the Fed's June meeting minutes on Wednesday, along with earnings from Delta Air Lines (DAL) and PepsiCo (PEP).^[Reuters]

Fed Minutes: New Chair's Debut, Markets Eye Hawkish Tone

The Fed releases the minutes from its June policy meeting on Wednesday (July 8). This is the first record of a meeting chaired by new President Kevin Warsh, and markets broadly expect a more hawkish tone than his predecessor.^[Reuters]

In his post-meeting press conference, Warsh stressed the Fed's focus on price stability and warned the central bank would no longer "hold the market's hand," abandoning forward guidance on the future policy path.^[Reuters] That shift means the minutes will carry even more weight, as investors parse the discussion for policy signals.

"I think it will be very interesting to see how the discussion around the table went, how hawkish they (the Fed) really are," said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments. "Investors and markets are wondering: what exactly is this new chair and the updated FOMC committee looking for to determine the future rate path?"^[Reuters]

Rate-hike expectations have been volatile. Hawkish bets had built up as inflation data consistently ran above the Fed's 2% annual target. But last Thursday (July 2), June nonfarm payrolls came in below expectations, temporarily easing some near-term rate-hike fears.^[Reuters] According to LSEG data, fed funds futures as of Thursday's close implied roughly a 50% probability of a rate hike at the September meeting.^[Reuters]

Analysts say the minutes' discussion of energy prices' impact on inflation, and whether there were dissents within the committee, will be key. The Iran conflict had earlier sent energy prices surging, though they had eased by the June meeting.^[Reuters] "If the Fed really does get more restrictive and starts a rate-hiking cycle, that's a risk for markets and valuations," said James Ragan, co-chief investment officer and director of investment management research at D.A. Davidson. "The more information we can get about how the Fed is thinking, the more important I think it is."^[Reuters]

Earnings Season Kicks Off: Delta and Pepsi Lead the Way

In a relatively light week for economic data, earnings from Delta Air Lines and PepsiCo will set the tone for Q2 reporting season. Strong corporate profits in Q1 had underpinned the market's rally, but also raised the bar for Q2 results.^[Reuters]

Barbara Doran, CEO of BD8 Capital Partners, told CNBC that given the strength in earnings, there is still room for further upside.^[CNBC]

Ahead of its report, PepsiCo on July 4 announced progress on its "PepsiCo Positive (pep+)" 2030 agriculture goals. The company said it has expanded regenerative, restorative, and conservation farming practices to 4.7 million acres globally, on track toward its 2030 target of 10 million acres.^{[Global Agriculture]} "Our positive agriculture agenda is delivering impact for people and the planet," said Jim Andrew, PepsiCo's chief sustainability officer and EVP. "While there is more work to do, this momentum is proof of what's possible with strong collaboration and continuous innovation."^{[Global Agriculture]}

Tech Volatility Intensifies, Rotation Signs Emerge

The start of the second half of 2026 looks much like the end of the first: heavy tech stocks driving major indices in a volatile fashion.^[Reuters] Tech, especially semiconductors, had powered the market higher in recent months, with the S&P 500 gaining 14.9% in Q2 — its best quarterly performance since 2020. But the sector has seen sharp swings recently, including a steep selloff late this week.^[Reuters]

Meanwhile, other sectors like healthcare, industrials, and financials have performed well over the past month, fueling hopes of a healthy rotation — that the market's rally is broadening out.^[Reuters]

"This is something I'll be watching closely in the coming weeks, to see if this (sector) broadening continues," said Joe Mazzola, head of trading and derivatives strategy at Charles Schwab. "Or, if you do see some of the tech winners go into a prolonged correction, does that signal a broader market correction?"^[Reuters]

Palantir Upgraded: Analyst Sees Value in AI Race

On the stock-specific front, Palantir (PLTR) received an analyst upgrade this week. Investor's Business Daily reported that an analyst raised the stock from "Hold" to "Buy" and lifted the price target from $130 to $155, citing the company's attractive position in the AI competitive landscape, particularly against rivals like Anthropic and OpenAI.^{[Investor's Business Daily]}

Palantir closed the last trading day of the week (July 2) at $125.73. With thin trading on Friday, July 3, ahead of Independence Day, and markets closed on Saturday, July 4, the stock's latest quote as of 12:00 PM ET on July 4 (00:00 Beijing time July 5) was $129.30, up 2.84% from the prior close.^[Reuters]

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