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Fed's Warsh Opens First FOMC Meeting as Chair — Markets Expect No Rate Move

The Federal Reserve's two-day FOMC meeting kicked off Tuesday under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with the rate decision due Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET. Markets are broadly pricing in a hold, even as inflation picks up and energy prices stay elevated.

OurAlpha

16 Jun 2026 — 4 min read

The new chair's first meeting — markets hold their breath ahead of Wednesday's rate decision.

Bottom line: The Federal Reserve's two-day FOMC meeting opened Tuesday, June 16 — the first chaired by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The rate decision and updated economic projections will be released Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference. Markets broadly expect the Fed to hold rates steady.

The two-day meeting opened Tuesday, June 16; the rate decision, updated projections, and press conference are all scheduled for Wednesday, June 17.
Markets broadly expect rates to hold, against a backdrop of still-elevated energy prices and reaccelerating inflation.
On Monday (6/15), the S&P 500 rose 1.65% to close at 7,554.29, lifted by a US-Iran interim peace deal.
The Nasdaq Composite surged 3.07% to 26,683.94; the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.92% to 51,671.03, a new record high.
The 10-year Treasury yield pulled back to roughly 4.46%–4.47% on Monday; the VIX dropped about 9% to 17.68.

The Federal Reserve's two-day FOMC meeting opened Tuesday, June 16, with markets focused on a notable first: new Chair Kevin Warsh presiding over his inaugural monetary policy meeting.^[^Kiplinger^] The rate decision, the latest round of economic projections, and a press conference are all on deck for Wednesday, June 17 at 2 p.m. ET. The market's base case: no change in rates.^[^Kiplinger^]

Warsh Takes the Chair for the First Time

This FOMC meeting marks Kevin Warsh's first as Fed Chair — a personnel milestone the market has flagged as one of this week's key focal points. Per the official schedule, the meeting runs June 16–17, with the rate decision, updated economic projections, and the chair's press conference all coming Wednesday.^[^Kiplinger^] References to Warsh as "new chair" and this as his "first meeting" are based on published reports; final details will be confirmed by the Fed's official releases.

Markets Expect a Hold

Consensus is firmly in the no-move camp for this meeting.^[^Kiplinger^] The macro backdrop underpinning that view rests on two factors:

Energy prices remain elevated.
Inflation has been reaccelerating.

In that environment, a hold has become the near-universal expectation. What the market doesn't yet know — and will be parsing closely — is the language in the policy statement, the updated projections, and whatever signals Warsh sends from the podium. This article covers only the published schedule and reporting; it does not prejudge the outcome.

Beyond the rate decision, two data releases round out the week's economic calendar:

May retail sales, due Wednesday before the open.
Weekly initial jobless claims, due Thursday.^[^Kiplinger^]

Monday's Rally: US-Iran Deal Sends Stocks Surging

Heading into the meeting, equities posted a strong session Monday, June 15. A reported US-Iran interim peace agreement was the catalyst, sending all three major indexes sharply higher.^[^{Al Jazeera}^]

Monday's closing numbers:

S&P 500: +1.65%, closing at 7,554.29.
Nasdaq Composite: +3.07%, closing at 26,683.94.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.92% (roughly 469 points), closing at 51,671.03 — a new all-time high.^[^TheStreet^]

Rates, volatility, and commodities all moved in tandem:

The 10-year Treasury yield fell back to roughly 4.46%–4.47%.
The VIX dropped about 9% to 17.68.^[^TheStreet^]

Oil sold off sharply on the same news. The interim deal reportedly includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply passes — with a formal signing set for this Friday in Switzerland. Crude prices fell materially on Monday as a result.^[^{Al Jazeera}^] Lower energy prices are generally read as disinflationary, and the trajectory of inflation and energy costs remains one of the key variables markets are watching to gauge the Fed's policy path — though energy-to-inflation transmission lags can be significant, and this context should not be read as a prediction for Wednesday's decision.

Heading into Tuesday's premarket, index futures were flat to slightly lower after Monday's surge, with traders largely in wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed.^[^Kiplinger^]

What We Know — and What We Don't

Based on the public schedule and available reporting, here's where things stand:

Schedule: Meeting opened Tuesday, June 16; rate decision, updated projections, and press conference all come Wednesday, June 17.
Market consensus: Hold rates steady.
Other data this week: May retail sales (Wednesday pre-market), weekly initial jobless claims (Thursday).
Monday's backdrop: S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all rallied — Dow hit a new all-time high — while Treasury yields and the VIX pulled back.

Still unknown, pending official release:

The actual rate decision and the exact language of the policy statement.
The updated economic projections, including the dot plot.
Warsh's tone and messaging at the press conference, and how markets interpret it.

All references to "market consensus" and "according to reports" reflect publicly available information as of the time of writing. The authoritative record will be the Fed's official releases and statement. Nothing in this article constitutes investment advice or a view on any asset.