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Micron Rebounds 8% to $896 Intraday, but the Bear Case Still Looms 8x Larger Than the 2018 Peak

Micron (MU) is bouncing hard, up 8% to $896 intraday after a brutal week. But even after the selloff, the bear-case valuation sits 8x above the 2018 cycle peak — the AI memory debate is far from settled.

OurAlpha

04 Aug 2026 — 4 min read

Micron's sharp rebound masks lingering uncertainty over CXMT's debut and AI memory demand.

Micron Technology (MU) is staging a sharp intraday rebound, trading at $896.08 as of 2:00 p.m. ET on Aug. 4, up 8.03% from the prior close of $829.50. The bounce follows a brutal week in which the stock was caught in a sector-wide selloff triggered by the listing of Chinese DRAM maker CXMT — and the tug-of-war over valuation and AI memory demand is still very much alive.

As of 2:00 p.m. ET Aug. 4, Micron (MU) trades at $896.08, up 8.03% (+$66.58) intraday; opened at $857.29 and hit a high of $902.43^{[Live Quotes]}
Micron's latest quarter: revenue of $41.46B, up 345.72% YoY, with GAAP gross margin of 84.6%^{[24/7 Wall St]}
Micron is down 15.48% over the past week and 27.53% over the past month, sliding from above $1,132 to $820.53^{[24/7 Wall St]}
Wall Street's consensus price target is $1,507.38, implying roughly 84% upside from current levels^{[24/7 Wall St]}
Micron shares are up 187.67% year to date and nearly 700% over the past year^{[24/7 Wall St]}
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says the pullback in semis and memory stocks has been "pretty deep"^{[24/7 Wall St]}

Micron (MU) is rebounding hard in Tuesday trading. As of 2:00 p.m. ET on Aug. 4, the stock sits at $896.08, up 8.03% (+$66.58) from the prior close of $829.50, after touching an intraday high of $902.43 and a low of $857.29, with the open at $857.29^[^{Live Quotes}^]. The bounce comes after a violent correction — the stock is down 15.48% over the past week and 27.53% over the past month, sliding from above $1,132 to $820.53^[^{24/7 Wall St}^]. Notably, despite the wild price swings, Micron just posted a quarter that's rare in industry history: revenue of $41.46B, up a staggering 345.72% YoY, with GAAP gross margin of 84.6%^[^{24/7 Wall St}^].

Record Results Meet a Brutal Selloff

Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra has called memory chips "the defining strategic asset of the AI era"^[^{24/7 Wall St}^]. The company just delivered a quarter with no precedent in the memory industry — $41.46B in revenue, 84.6% gross margin, and 345.72% YoY growth. Yet the stock's trajectory tells a very different story from the fundamentals.

The catalyst for the pullback was the Shanghai debut of Chinese DRAM maker CXMT, whose shares surged 466% on day one, briefly pushing its market cap past Intel's. That triggered a sector-wide selloff: SanDisk fell 9%, Western Digital dropped 8%, and Micron lost 7%^[^{24/7 Wall St}^]. Never mind that CXMT mainly competes in commodity-grade DDR5 rather than HBM — the market dumped every memory name indiscriminately.

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson argues the correction in semis and memory has "gotten pretty deep"^[^{24/7 Wall St}^]. With a beta of 2.14, Micron amplifies every macro swing.

The Valuation Debate: 13x Earnings vs. 84% Upside

After the steep pullback, Micron's valuation metrics have shifted dramatically. Per 24/7 Wall St, at 13x forward earnings, Micron now sits in value-stock territory — despite 346% revenue growth and 84.6% gross margins in its latest quarter^[^{24/7 Wall St}^]. The Street's consensus target is $1,507.38, implying roughly 84% upside from here^[^{24/7 Wall St}^].

Not everyone is buying the optimism. A commentary piece from The Motley Fool notes that while Micron is a top supplier of HBM for data centers, surging memory prices are raising the cost of running AI software — prompting many companies to limit usage^[^AOL^]. The author explicitly says they won't buy this dip, citing uncertainty over the sustainability of the AI infrastructure spending boom — soaring chip and component costs are threatening the economic viability of AI software deployments.

The Bear Case: 8x Higher Than the 2018 Peak

StreetSignal's morning note offers a striking frame: Micron's current bear-case valuation is still 8x higher than the 2018 cycle peak^[^StreetSignal^]. In other words, even in the most pessimistic scenario, the valuation floor sits far above the last cycle's high — a testament to the structural shift in AI-driven memory demand.

A Seeking Alpha analysis titled "Micron: This Time The Down-Cycle Has A Floor" notes the stock just went through its "weirdest week" after posting the best quarter in industry history^[^{Seeking Alpha}^]. The author discloses they hold no Micron shares and have no plans to initiate a position within the next 72 hours.

Sector Momentum and Market Context

Micron's bounce isn't happening in a vacuum. Per Techmeme, in the prior session (Thursday, July 30), chip stocks rallied broadly on strong Microsoft and Lam Research earnings: Lam Research closed up 18%, Micron gained 18%, SanDisk rose 26%, Arm added 7%, AMD climbed 13%, and Intel advanced 11%^[^Techmeme^]. That suggests clear repair momentum in memory and semis after the CXMT shock.

StreetSignal's note also highlights that in the just-wrapped hyperscaler earnings season, Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) did the heavy lifting, with Google (GOOGL) and Meta (META) following higher. Semis held up, software didn't crack, and the whole AI complex moved in sync^[^StreetSignal^]. The open question: does this breadth improvement signal a shift from a narrow AI trade driven by a handful of mega-cap earnings to a healthier, broader rally?