News

Today's Watch: US May PCE, Q1 GDP Final, and Darden Earnings

Thursday packs in May PCE, the Q1 GDP final revision, May durable goods orders, and Darden (DRI) Q4 earnings — a full slate as markets reprice Fed rate hike odds. Wells Fargo expects headline PCE at +0.5% MoM and +4.1% YoY, with core PCE at +0.3%.

OurAlpha

25 Jun 2026 — 2 min read

May PCE, the Q1 GDP final, and durable goods orders converge on one day — the inflation print will shape how markets read the Fed's rate path.

On Thursday, June 25, the US releases a batch of high-stakes economic data — including the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the May PCE price index, the Q1 GDP final revision, and May durable goods orders. Restaurant operator Darden (DRI) reports Q4 earnings before the open. The prints land as markets increasingly price in Fed rate hikes and the dollar firms.

May PCE: Wells Fargo economists expect headline to rise ~0.5% MoM, pushing the YoY rate to ~4.1%^[CNBC]
Core PCE (ex-food & energy): ~0.3% MoM, ~3.4% YoY
Q1 GDP final revision and May durable goods orders also due Thursday
Darden (DRI) reports Q4 earnings before the open; consensus adjusted EPS ~$3.63^{[Yahoo Finance]}

Thursday, June 25 brings a loaded economic calendar. Per CNBC and Schwab, the day features the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — the May PCE price index — alongside the Q1 GDP final revision and May durable goods orders. Darden (DRI) reports Q4 earnings before the open. With markets increasingly pricing in rate hikes this year and the dollar on the rise, the inflation and growth prints are drawing extra scrutiny.^[^CNBC^]

May PCE: What the Market Expects

The PCE price index is the Fed's preferred inflation measure. Per CNBC, citing Wells Fargo economists:

Headline PCE: ~+0.5% MoM, driven largely by energy-related costs; YoY rate expected to climb to ~4.1%
Core PCE (ex-food & energy): ~+0.3% MoM, ~3.4% YoY

These are consensus estimates; actual results may differ.^[^CNBC^]

Other Data and Earnings

Q1 GDP Final Revision: The third and final read on US economic growth in Q1
May Durable Goods Orders: A leading indicator of manufacturing demand
Darden (DRI) Q4 Earnings: Per Yahoo Finance, consensus adjusted EPS is ~$3.63, up ~21.8% YoY from $2.98 in the year-ago quarter; results due before the open^[^{Yahoo Finance}^]

Market Backdrop

The data arrives as markets reprice the Fed's rate path. Per multiple sources, rate-hike expectations for this year have been building, lifting the dollar. US equities closed mixed on June 24, with precious metals and crude oil both declining. A hotter-than-expected PCE print would likely reinforce rate-hike bets; a cooler read could ease them. All figures and expectations reflect institutional and media reports as of the time of writing; actual data and market reactions may differ materially.