SoftBank Revives $10B AI Loan Talks; Oracle Slides 3% After-Hours on Capex Warning

SoftBank Group is reportedly reopening talks with banks to raise a $10 billion loan backed by its AI infrastructure investments, including the Stargate project with Oracle, according to multiple media reports. The news, combined with Oracle’s own risk disclosures, sent Oracle (ORCL) shares lower in after-hours trading on July 1. As of 6:30 p.m. ET, Oracle was at $142.50, down 2.76% from its $146.55 close, after hitting an intraday high of $147.55.^{[Kitco/Reuters]}

SoftBank’s $10B Loan Talks Revived

SoftBank is in early-stage discussions with several large banks for a roughly $10 billion loan, according to people familiar with the matter. The loan is expected to be backed by SoftBank’s AI investment portfolio, which may include the Stargate data-center project alongside Oracle and OpenAI. This isn’t SoftBank’s first attempt at such financing—the company tried to raise a similar amount for AI projects in 2025 but shelved it over terms. The revived talks come as the global AI infrastructure investment boom accelerates. BNP Paribas estimates that hyperscaler capex will total roughly $725 billion this year, nearly double mid-2025 levels.^{[Kitco/Reuters]}

SoftBank is also drawing political scrutiny. The Washington Post reported on July 1 that Senator Elizabeth Warren and fellow Democrats are pressing SoftBank to explain its reported $50 million donation to the Trump presidential library. In a letter to SoftBank, Warren wrote: “These circumstances raise concerns about the possibility of bribery and whether donors are seeking favorable treatment from the Trump administration.” As a major AI investor, SoftBank’s business touches several areas requiring U.S. government approval, making the donation’s timing particularly sensitive.^{[Washington Post]}

Oracle’s 10-K Flags AI Infrastructure Risks

In its fiscal 2026 10-K filed with the SEC in late June, Oracle laid out an unusually detailed list of dozens of risks tied to its AI data-center buildout. The filing showed Oracle’s capex for fiscal 2026 (ended May 2026) surged to $55.7 billion from $21.2 billion the prior year, with guidance of $90–$95 billion for fiscal 2027.^{[Let's Data Science]}

“To grow our OCI business, which requires increased computing capacity, we must incur significant capital and operating expenditures,” the filing stated. But it also listed risks that could prevent those investments from paying off: GPU and power shortages, permitting and construction delays, customer defaults or non-payment, overcapacity leading to idle assets, tariffs and export controls, and cybersecurity and reputational risks. Gizmodo first reported on the filing, noting that Oracle specifically flagged that some customers “may be highly leveraged” and that the company could face “non-payment and non-performance risk”—a clear nod to cash-burning AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic.^{[Let's Data Science]}

AI Debt Market: Innovation and Concerns

The AI infrastructure spending frenzy is reshaping global bond markets. Amazon and Alphabet have issued $60 billion in multi-currency bonds over the past 12 months, per Reuters on June 29. Amazon raised €14.5 billion (about $16.56 billion) in March via an eight-part deal, a record for euro corporate bonds. Alphabet set borrowing records in yen, Canadian dollars, Swiss francs, and sterling, and issued the first 100-year bond from a tech company since 1997.^{[Kitco/Reuters]}

Teddy Hodgson, co-head of investment-grade bonds at Morgan Stanley, said these mega-deals have already reshaped global bond markets. He expects AI-related debt could push investment-grade issuance above $2 trillion for the first time in 2026. Hyperscaler investment-grade bond issuance has already surpassed the full-year 2025 total. “These are high-quality, high-grade bonds with strong demand and ample liquidity,” said Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments. “But if we start seeing companies coming back to the market repeatedly, that becomes a concern.”^{[Kitco/Reuters]}

Banks are also innovating financing structures for AI startups and data-center operators. Cipher Digital’s Stingray Compute issued $810 million in notes this month backed by Amazon data-center leases, drawing 9x oversubscription. Morgan Stanley’s Cody Gunsch said roughly 15 similar deals have been sold to high-yield investors since the structure first appeared last year.^{[Kitco/Reuters]}

Analysts: Tech Giants Won’t Slash AI Spending

Despite growing concerns about AI investment returns, some analysts remain bullish. A bullish tech analyst told Yahoo Finance that big tech companies won’t cut their AI spending plans. The analyst noted that while stocks like Oracle have sold off recently on investor caution over AI infrastructure outlays, the capex race is far from over. Morgan Stanley’s Hodgson added that if companies start issuing equity, the question of how much debt they need to raise is one investors are already pondering.^{[Yahoo Finance]}

Notably, Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) announced on June 29 that it may sell up to $1.25 billion in bitcoin to bolster cash reserves, and set up $1 billion each in common and preferred stock buyback programs. The company said it would be more disciplined in issuing common stock, especially when its share price is near or at its bitcoin holdings value. The move is seen as a signal that financing conditions in both AI and crypto are shifting.^[Bloomberg]

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