SpaceX Stock Hits Post-IPO Low as 80% of Wall Street Analysts Say ‘Buy’

SpaceX (SPCX) has been on a steady decline since its June 12 IPO at roughly $150. As of 1:00 PM ET on July 8, the stock traded at $512.73, down 0.65% from Monday’s close of $516.11, and hit an intraday low of $498.15—a new post-IPO low.^[Axios] The prior session (July 7) saw the stock close around $516, already well off its initial levels.^{[Investor's Business Daily]}

Quiet Period Ends, Wall Street Unleashes Bullish Coverage

With the 25-day IPO underwriter quiet period expiring on Tuesday (July 7), major Wall Street banks released their first research reports on SpaceX. According to Axios, 80% of the 21 analysts tracked by FactSet rate the stock Buy or Overweight, with just 10% recommending Sell. The consensus price target is roughly $247, implying over 60% upside from Tuesday’s close.^[Axios]

Morgan Stanley initiated with an Overweight rating and a $300 target, one of the highest on the Street. The firm says SpaceX can “convert energy into intelligence at scale” and projects revenue will exceed $3.3 trillion by 2040. However, it flags reliance on founder Elon Musk, conflicts of interest with Tesla, regulatory or geopolitical risks, and “funding needs” as key risks.^{[Seeking Alpha]}

Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan gave SpaceX a Buy rating and a $205 target. Goldman sees “differentiated advantages” in space, connectivity, and AI, with each market having the potential to become a “trillion-dollar opportunity” over a five-year-plus timeframe.^{[Seeking Alpha]}

Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale was more aggressive, setting a $800 target, which implies a valuation of roughly $10.5 trillion.^{[Let's Data Science]}

AI Narrative Drives Valuation, but Funding Needs Loom

Wall Street’s bullish case is heavily centered on SpaceX’s AI potential. According to Let's Data Science, SpaceX internally estimates its total addressable market at $28.5 trillion, with roughly 90% attributed to AI-related activities.^{[Let's Data Science]} Bank of America analysts wrote: “The result is a powerful flywheel—launches enable space applications, applications generate cash flow, and cash flow funds further infrastructure investment.”^[Axios]

Yet multiple firms also issued warnings: realizing this vision requires astronomical capital. Morgan Stanley analysts note that SpaceX’s “high spending needs ($300 billion in annual capex by 2031) mean the company cannot generate positive free cash flow before 2035 in our forecast,” requiring an average of ~$84 billion in external capital annually from 2027 to 2034. “The ability to secure necessary capital is one of the biggest risks in our forecast.”^[Axios]

Goldman similarly states, “We believe SpaceX will need to raise roughly $270 billion in debt capital between 2026 and 2030 (including a near-term $25 billion debt financing as a first step) to operate from its current stage to positive free cash flow in Q4 2030.”^[Axios]

Legendary Investor Warns Valuation Is ‘Completely Unimaginable’

In stark contrast to Wall Street’s optimism, legendary investor and GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham issued a stark warning. According to Let's Data Science, citing DimsumDaily, Grantham told Morningstar on July 5 that he is “at least 90% certain” SpaceX shares will see a “sharp reversal,” calling some of the company’s promotional material “completely unimaginable.”^{[Let's Data Science]}

Grantham’s warning is not isolated. Axios notes bluntly that SpaceX’s survival “depends largely on whether Musk can keep tapping financial markets for an endless stream of capital,” which he has done by “captivating investor attention with sci-fi visions of the future” and his status as the world’s richest person and CEO of two of the largest companies.^[Axios]

Axios also points out that the overwhelming positive coverage from Wall Street analysts may have a commercial motive—the massive capital SpaceX will need to raise will largely flow through these same banks, generating hefty underwriting fees. “How much courage does it take for a brave analyst to slap a Sell rating on SpaceX and risk costing their bank millions in underwriting fees?”^[Axios]

Nasdaq 100 Fast Track: Index Funds Buy In

Amid the price pressure, SpaceX scored another key win: the Nasdaq exchange announced Tuesday (July 7) that SpaceX has been fast-tracked into the Nasdaq 100 index, effective at the open that day.^[Axios] Reuters previously reported that SpaceX made Nasdaq listing a condition of its IPO, requiring the exchange to change its rules to allow for rapid index inclusion.^[Axios]

Index inclusion typically forces passive funds tracking the index to buy the stock, which could provide some support. But as of Tuesday’s intraday trading, that catalyst has not yet reversed the downtrend.

Analyst Divide: Can AI Revenue Deliver?

The core disagreement on SpaceX centers on whether its AI business can deliver. According to The Next Web, the bullish camp projects AI-related revenue will grow from the $19 billion reported last year to trillions by 2035, with most near-term growth coming from computing and data services sales, not launches or Starlink connectivity.^{[Let's Data Science]} However, the company’s nearly $6 billion loss in 2025 provides a counterargument to those sky-high projections.^{[Let's Data Science]}

Investors should watch for: revisions to revenue and AI service timelines from major brokers, actual product launches and technical whitepapers, and whether AI-related businesses begin to make a material contribution to revenue and margins.^{[Let's Data Science]}

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