ASML Lifts 2026 Revenue Guidance Again as AI Chip Demand Fuels Capacity Expansion

ASML Holding (ASML) reported Q2 results for the period ended June 30 on July 15, with revenue and profit both beating Wall Street estimates, and raised its full-year guidance for the second consecutive quarter. Management also unveiled an aggressive capacity expansion plan, underscoring sustained investment demand from the world's top chipmakers for advanced AI-related process equipment. As of 11:30 a.m. ET on July 17, ASML shares were at $485.80, down 3.02% from the prior close of $500.94, with an opening price of $477.49, an intraday high of $493.39, and a low of $460.21.

Q2 Earnings Beat: Revenue and Profit Top Consensus

ASML reported Q2 net revenue of €9.33 billion (~$10.9 billion), above the analyst consensus of €8.8 billion, and net profit of €2.92 billion, also exceeding the market's €2.62 billion estimate.^{[TradingView]} The company attributed the strength to sustained demand for equipment used in AI chip production.

In the prior quarter, ASML posted Q1 2026 net revenue of €6.29 billion, a gross margin of 44.7%, and net profit of €1.74 billion.^{[ad-hoc-news.de]} The gross margin was slightly below the 45.9% recorded in Q4 2025, which management attributed to product mix shifts and ramp-up dynamics in certain system categories.^{[ad-hoc-news.de]}

2026 Revenue Guidance Hiked, Capacity Expansion Plan Set

ASML raised its full-year 2026 net revenue outlook to €43-45 billion, up sharply from the prior range of €36-40 billion.^{[TradingView]} This marks the second consecutive quarter the company has raised its full-year guidance.^{[24/7 Wall St.]}

On capacity, ASML plans to increase annual EUV lithography system output by 30% to roughly 84 units in 2027, up from 65 units in 2026. The company also said its 2026 EUV capacity is nearly fully booked and is planning another 30% expansion for 2028.^{[24/7 Wall St.]} Additionally, ASML intends to boost capacity for both EUV and deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems by roughly 30% annually over the next two years.^{[TradingView]}

Multi-Year Customer Orders, AI Demand Seen as Long-Term Driver

ASML management noted that AI demand is pushing customers to extend their investment plans several years out. According to 24/7 Wall St., a single EUV lithography system costs over $200 million, contains more than 100,000 components, and typically takes months to install and calibrate. Customers only place such orders when they are confident they will need the capacity for years to come.^{[24/7 Wall St.]}

ASML said its customers include TSMC (TSM), Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Micron Technology (MU), and Intel (INTC), all of which are expanding capacity to meet AI-related demand. Intel, for its part, plans to use ASML's High-NA lithography systems to manufacture some of its Panther Lake processors.^{[TradingView]}

Analyst View: Cyclical and Structural Demand Coexist

Despite ASML's strong results and guidance, the market's view on its long-term outlook is not entirely uniform. The Motley Fool, in an analysis of Micron Technology (MU), cautioned that the memory chip industry has historically been highly cyclical, with supply-demand imbalances leading to sharp price swings. The article noted that while Micron has signed 16 multi-year supply agreements, "this time is different" are the four most dangerous words in investing, and that multiple memory chip manufacturers will bring more capacity online in 2027, with supply-demand imbalances potentially narrowing by 2028.^{[The Motley Fool]}

As the only company capable of mass-producing EUV lithography equipment commercially, ASML's order book and capacity plans are widely seen as a key bellwether for AI infrastructure investment. Management's confidence in its earnings report, along with capacity expansion plans that incorporate future demand from projects like Elon Musk's Terafab, reflects the multi-year demand outlook AI is generating for semiconductor equipment.^{[24/7 Wall St.]}

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