Stablecoin Regulation Countdown: Two Years to Go, Coinbase Rallies 3.6% Intraday

As of 2:30 p.m. ET on July 20, crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) traded at $162.90, up 3.68% from the prior close of $157.12, with an intraday high of $164.695 and a low of $155.15. The previous session (July 17), COIN closed roughly 2.3% lower. The market is digesting a wave of major developments and uncertainties around stablecoin regulation.

GENIUS Act One Year On: Regulators Miss Rulemaking Deadline

According to CoinDesk, the U.S. GENIUS Act marked its one-year anniversary in July, but no federal financial regulator has completed the stablecoin rulemaking required by the law.^[CoinDesk] The act mandated that relevant agencies issue detailed implementation rules within one year, but none have done so, leaving the market with lingering compliance uncertainty.

Despite the delay, the law’s core framework is largely settled. Per CoinDesk’s analysis, the act requires all stablecoin issuers operating in the U.S. to meet strict standards, including 100% reserves, regular audits, and transparency requirements. For the world’s largest stablecoin, USDT, that means issuer Tether must make major adjustments within two years or risk being shut out of the U.S. market.^[CoinDesk]

The law gives non-U.S. issuers until July 2028 to come into compliance. CoinDesk notes that Tether has repeatedly said it is exploring compliance pathways but has not yet announced a concrete plan. USDT remains the most heavily traded stablecoin globally, with daily volumes far exceeding those of any competitor.

Stablecoin On-Chain Volume Surpasses ACH, Market Cap Hits Record

Even as the regulatory framework takes shape, real-world stablecoin usage is exploding. According to Forbes, monthly stablecoin on-chain transaction volume hit $7.2 trillion in February 2026, surpassing the U.S. ACH network’s $6.8 trillion for the first time.^[Forbes] The trend continued in March, with stablecoin volume rising further to $7.5 trillion, roughly on par with ACH processing. Meanwhile, total stablecoin market cap broke above $316.7 billion, a new all-time high.

Forbes quoted David Cunningham, global head of institutional business at Consensys: “You are seeing U.S. financial power and the global reserve currency moving at scale on-chain. When the DTCC and the NYSE embed tokenization into capital markets, that marks a turning point.”^[Forbes]

Citi analysts expect stablecoin supply to reach $1.9 trillion by 2030, while other industry forecasts point to a $1.2 trillion market by the end of 2028.^[Forbes] Stablecoins are evolving from a pure crypto trading tool into a universal settlement layer for global finance, capable of moving capital across payments, investing, savings, and international trade without relying on traditional financial rails.

Trump Pushes Clarity Act, Senate Faces Tight Window

On the legislative front, President Trump is stepping up pressure to pass the Clarity Act. Per The Motley Fool, Trump posted on Truth Social urging the Senate to honor the late Senator Lindsey Graham and pass the bill to maintain U.S. leadership in crypto.^{[Motley Fool]}

The Clarity Act aims to create a broad regulatory framework for crypto, clarifying jurisdictional lines and designating the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as the regulator for crypto spot markets. It also defines the key term “mature blockchain,” which will determine whether a token is classified as a security or a cryptocurrency. Importantly, the bill includes stablecoin provisions: idle stablecoins cannot earn yield, but rewards for specific stablecoin activities or transactions are permitted.^{[Motley Fool]}

The window is closing fast. The Senate will recess on August 11 and not return until mid-September. Brian Gardner, Stifel’s chief Washington policy strategist, wrote in a late-June research note: “To pass a crypto market structure bill this year, we believe Congress needs to finish the job before the August recess. Passing it in a lame-duck session after the midterms is theoretically possible but unlikely.”^{[Motley Fool]}

According to Kalshi, as of July 16, the probability of the Senate voting on the Clarity Act before the August recess stands at 73%. But the bill needs at least 60 votes to pass, and with only a razor-thin majority, seven Democrats would have to cross the aisle. Kalshi data shows the probability of the bill getting at least 60 votes is 70% — though that figure was just 21% a few days earlier.^{[Motley Fool]}

Dollar Stablecoins Quietly Dominate Brazil’s Payment Market

On the international stage, stablecoins’ global reach is drawing geopolitical attention. Per CoinDesk, the U.S. plans to impose a 25% Section 301 tariff on most Brazilian goods starting July 22, arguing that Brazil’s state-owned Pix instant payment system creates an unfair competitive advantage.^[CoinDesk]

CoinDesk reports that Washington views Brazil’s promotion of non-dollar payment channels — including Pix and the growth of stablecoins — as a potential threat to dollar trade. Yet dollar-pegged stablecoins actually account for roughly 90% of Brazil’s crypto transaction volume.^[CoinDesk]

This paradox highlights the complex role stablecoins play in the global financial system: on one hand, dollar stablecoins are expanding the dollar’s reach overseas; on the other, the rise of non-dollar payment systems unnerves Washington. U.S. trade officials argue that Pix’s rules — free for individuals and capped fees for merchants — give Brazilian exporters an unfair cost advantage.

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