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Energy Stocks Diverge: Occidental Dips 0.5% After Hours, Exxon Q2 Profits Seen Tripling

Occidental Petroleum reversed a 4% premarket gain to close lower after Trump scrapped the Iran ceasefire, while Exxon and Chevron are poised to report Q2 profits more than triple Q1 levels.

OurAlpha

08 Jul 2026 — 4 min read

Iran ceasefire collapse sends oil surging, energy giants see profits spike but stock moves diverge.

U.S. energy stocks showed a sharp divergence on Wednesday, July 8. After President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire deal dead, sending international oil prices surging, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) initially jumped more than 4% in premarket trading but reversed to close lower. Meanwhile, mega-cap names Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) posted more modest premarket gains, as the market turns its focus to the upcoming Q2 earnings season. Analysts expect these companies to post massive profit surges driven by the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

As of 4:00 PM ET on July 8, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) closed at $140.92, down 0.54% (-$0.77) from the prior close of $141.69.
According to CNBC, in premarket trading on July 8, Occidental was up more than 2.5%, Chevron up over 2%, and Exxon Mobil up 1.5%.
Citing analyst estimates, Reuters reported that Exxon Mobil’s adjusted Q2 net profit is expected to hit $15.9 billion, with Chevron near $10 billion — both more than triple their Q1 profits.
The average U.S. gasoline price fell to $3.755 per gallon on July 4, down $0.81 from its May peak but still $0.65 higher than a year ago.
The Trump administration has asked the Justice Department to investigate price gouging at gas stations and urged state law enforcement agencies to join the probe.

Oil Surge and Energy Stocks’ Premarket Rally

The energy sector was the market’s focal point in premarket trading on July 8. According to CNBC, energy stocks broadly rallied after President Trump announced the end of the Iran ceasefire deal, sending U.S. crude prices sharply higher.^[^CNBC^] Specifically, Diamondback Energy rose more than 3% in premarket, while APA Corporation and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) both gained over 2.5%. Chevron (CVX) was up more than 2% premarket, and Exxon Mobil (XOM) gained 1.5%.^[^CNBC^]

In stark contrast, cruise and airline stocks — highly sensitive to fuel costs — fell on the oil price spike. According to CNBC, Carnival Corporation and several airline stocks weakened in premarket trading.^[^CNBC^]

Mega-Cap Q2 Profits Seen at Record Levels, Trump Pushes for Lower Prices

With Q2 earnings season approaching, attention is sharply focused on energy giants’ profits. Reuters reported on July 7 that Exxon Mobil signaled a significant jump in its second-quarter earnings.^[^Reuters^] Citing analyst estimates, Oil & Gas 360 noted that with crude prices hitting four-year highs due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Exxon Mobil’s adjusted Q2 net profit is expected to reach $15.9 billion, and Chevron’s near $10 billion — both more than triple their Q1 profits.^[^{Oil & Gas 360}^] The report said all major oil companies’ earnings from April to June are expected to be the highest since 2022, when oil prices surged past $100 a barrel after the Russia-Ukraine conflict.^[^{Oil & Gas 360}^]

However, much like in 2022, Big Oil is facing windfall-profit accusations. According to Oil & Gas 360, the twist this time is that the calls for scrutiny and investigations are coming from President Trump, who has historically supported the oil industry. Trump has demanded that U.S. gasoline prices fall “immediately” to between $2.25 and $2.50 per gallon. Oil majors argue that the lag between crude and refined product prices, combined with low global inventories, means it will take time for gasoline prices to decline.^[^{Oil & Gas 360}^] The report noted that since late June, Trump has ordered the Justice Department to investigate possible price gouging at gas stations, and the DOJ has urged state law enforcement agencies to join the probe.^[^{Oil & Gas 360}^]

Refiners Under the Hormuz Crisis: Short-Term Windfall, Long-Term Risk

A Reuters commentary on July 8 argued that the windfall refiners are reaping from the Strait of Hormuz crisis may be short-lived.^[^Reuters^] The analysis suggests that while the current crude supply disruption is boosting refining margins, these excess profits could quickly fade as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes and global inventories gradually recover. Meanwhile, although gasoline prices have fallen from a four-year high of $4.50 per gallon in early May, the national average stood at $3.755 per gallon as of July 4 — still $0.65 higher than a year ago.^[^{Oil & Gas 360}^]

Market Focus: Earnings Season and Geopolitical Outlook

With Q2 earnings season set to kick off next week, the energy sector’s performance will be a key market focus. According to Barron’s, as the tech rally cools, Wall Street is closely watching the upcoming critical earnings season.^[^Barron's^] At the same time, geopolitical developments — particularly the status of the Strait of Hormuz and the tug-of-war between the Trump administration and oil majors over gasoline prices — will continue to influence oil price trends and energy stock performance. OilPrice.com’s analysis notes that the next oil price spike could come sooner than traders expect.^[^OilPrice.com^]