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IBM Bucks the Tech Selloff, Gains 5%+ as Morgan Stanley Raises Target to $267

IBM jumped more than 5% on June 23 even as the Nasdaq slid and chip stocks cratered. Two Wall Street upgrades — Morgan Stanley lifting its target to $267 and JPMorgan moving to Overweight at $291 — set the company apart from the semiconductor wreckage.

OurAlpha

24 Jun 2026 — 4 min read

On a day when the rest of tech sold off, two major banks talked IBM up.

On June 23, US tech stocks sold off sharply — semiconductors led the decline — while IBM bucked the trend and closed higher, driven by bullish calls from two major banks issued the same day.

IBM rose approximately 5.34% on the day, compared with a 7.9% drop in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.
Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring raised IBM's price target from $225 to $267, maintaining an Equal-Weight rating.
JPMorgan simultaneously upgraded IBM from Neutral to Overweight, lifting its target to $291.
Both firms cited accelerating AI software and consulting as the basis for their more positive views.
Micron fell roughly 11% and Marvell and other chip stocks were broadly lower on the day.

On June 23, 2026, US tech stocks pulled back meaningfully, with the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 both finishing lower and semiconductor names leading the retreat. Against that backdrop, International Business Machines (IBM, NYSE: IBM) stood out as one of the few major tech stocks to close in the green, gaining approximately 5.34%.^[1] The move was driven primarily by bullish analyst notes published the same day by Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan.^[2]

One of the Few Tech Winners in a Down Market

The broader market was under significant pressure. According to financial media reports, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit their lowest levels in over a week, with semiconductors as the primary drag. Micron fell roughly 11%, SanDisk dropped about 12.6%, and Intel, Marvell, and AMD declined between 3.8% and 9%; Nvidia fell approximately 3.7%.^[3] The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down roughly 7.9%, with constituent stocks falling across the board.^[3]

Media coverage attributed the selloff to concerns over the Fed potentially keeping policy tighter for longer, and to growing skepticism about large-cap tech companies funding AI capex through debt.^[3] In that context, IBM's outperformance was widely credited to the two analyst reports rather than any semiconductor-cycle tailwind.

Morgan Stanley's Upgrade: The Details

Per research notes cited by TipRanks and GuruFocus, Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring raised IBM's price target from $225 to $267 while maintaining an Equal-Weight rating.^[2][4] Equal-Weight is a neutral stance — the bank lifted its target without pushing IBM as a strong buy.

According to reports, Morgan Stanley's note pointed to improving fundamentals and potential tailwinds from enterprise AI adoption, while characterizing the current valuation as "fairly balanced."^[5] The analysis highlighted IBM's meaningful revenue exposure to software platforms — including Red Hat OpenShift for enterprise hybrid-cloud deployments — alongside consulting work centered on AI, cybersecurity, and legacy-system modernization, as well as the company's zSystems mainframe and storage hardware businesses.^[5]

It is worth noting that the $267 target figure has appeared in earlier public records; reports indicate this reflects an update reviewed and published around June 23.^[4][5] Investors should pay attention to both the publication date and the direction of the rating when interpreting the number.

JPMorgan Goes Further With a Higher Target the Same Day

Unlike Morgan Stanley's neutral posture, JPMorgan took a more decisively bullish stance. Multiple outlets reported that JPMorgan upgraded IBM from Neutral to Overweight and raised its price target to $291.^[2][6] Some reports attributed the call to analyst Brian Essex, who lifted the target from $270 to $291.^[5]

JPMorgan's upgrade rationale emphasized higher conviction in IBM's software business acceleration and AI-driven growth. Analysis cited software as accounting for roughly 45% of IBM's revenue and generating a disproportionate share of consolidated profit, with the recurring-revenue model and strong cash conversion highlighted as key positives.^[6] That 45% figure reflects the firm's own revenue breakdown rather than an officially audited segment disclosure — investors should refer to IBM's filings for authoritative figures.

Divergent Ratings and What to Watch

The two actions on the same day broadly point in the same direction but with a notable difference in conviction: JPMorgan explicitly upgraded to Overweight, while Morgan Stanley raised its target but held its neutral Equal-Weight stance. That gap is itself a signal — Wall Street has yet to reach consensus on IBM's positioning in the AI era.

Some financial media commentary raised questions about the durability of IBM's mainframe moat and the company's relative standing in the AI wave.^[5] It is also worth noting that Morgan Stanley had previously cut IBM's price target at an earlier point, reflecting how the firm's view has shifted as fundamentals and valuation have evolved.^[4]

For investors tracking IBM, the key variables to watch include actual revenue and profit contributions from the software and consulting segments in upcoming earnings, growth data for product lines such as Red Hat and watsonx, and whether additional institutions follow these two upgrades with rating or target-price revisions of their own. All price moves, targets, and ratings cited in this article are drawn from third-party reports and analyst note summaries; refer to each firm's original research and IBM's official disclosures for authoritative figures.