Trump Declares Iran Ceasefire ‘Over,’ Oil Surges and Stocks Plunge

(As of 5:30 p.m. Beijing time on July 9, 2026, U.S. stocks were in pre-market trading. Since real-time quotes were unavailable, all gains and losses below are based on intraday data mentioned in the source material, with the specific time period noted.)

Speaking at the NATO summit in Turkey on Wednesday, President Trump said the ceasefire agreement reached with Iran last month is “over,” adding, “We hit them very hard last night, and we may hit them very hard again tonight.”^{[New York Post]} The remarks immediately roiled markets, sending oil prices sharply higher and pushing all three major U.S. stock indexes into the red on Wednesday (July 8), with the Dow briefly down more than 800 points.^{[Investopedia]}

Oil Surges, Energy Stocks Rally

Trump’s hawkish comments sent oil prices jumping. According to Investopedia, as of mid-session on July 8, West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 7% to $75.50 a barrel, while global benchmark Brent crude gained 7.5% to $79.70 a barrel.^{[Investopedia]} Marine News Magazine data showed Brent briefly spiking 5.14% to $77.97 and WTI rising 4.77% to $73.80, both hitting their highest levels since June 22.^{[Marine News Magazine]}

The oil rally came as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated again. Iran had attacked three commercial vessels in the strait, and the U.S. Central Command said American forces launched “powerful” airstrikes in response on Tuesday (July 7).^{[New York Post]} Iran’s Revolutionary Guard later said it struck U.S. military targets in Bahrain and Kuwait early Wednesday.^{[Marine News Magazine]} The attacks rekindled fears for the safety of oil tankers transiting the strait, which before the war carried about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.^{[Marine News Magazine]}

Energy stocks were the bright spot in Wednesday’s session. According to the New York Post, ConocoPhillips rose 2.5%, Marathon Petroleum gained 4.3%, Chevron added 2.2%, and Exxon Mobil edged up 0.9%.^{[New York Post]}

Major Indexes Slump, Tech Under Pressure

Rising geopolitical risk sent the broader market sharply lower on Wednesday (July 8). As of 11:54 a.m. ET, the Dow was down 1.6%, the S&P 500 fell 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.1%, according to Investopedia.^{[Investopedia]} The New York Post reported the Dow had been down as much as 693 points intraday.^{[New York Post]}

Tech stocks, particularly semiconductors, continued to struggle. Investopedia noted ongoing investor concerns that massive AI spending could be inflating a bubble.^{[Investopedia]} The New York Post reported that Samsung, Intel, and AMD fell 6.3%, 2.6%, and 0.7%, respectively.^{[New York Post]} Broadcom bucked the trend, rising more than 4% after announcing an expanded partnership with Apple to supply custom chips.^{[Investopedia]}

Among the Magnificent Seven, all stocks except Nvidia were lower. Tesla fell more than 2% after dropping 4% on Tuesday.^{[Investopedia]} Elon Musk’s SpaceX edged up after falling 7% on its Nasdaq 100 debut Tuesday.^{[Investopedia]}

Analysts: Markets Reprice Geopolitical Risk

Market analysts broadly viewed Trump’s comments as a significant escalation in the Middle East, forcing a reassessment of geopolitical risk. Ole Hvalbye, an analyst at SEB Research, said: “Fundamentally, oil should be higher — the market had been rushing to find some kind of solution and staying optimistic. Trump’s latest comments about attacking Iran are also pushing oil higher.” He added, “We still aren’t getting the full volume we should from the Strait of Hormuz, and OECD inventories are at 23-year lows.”^{[Marine News Magazine]}

Saul Kavonic, head of research at MST Marquee, noted: “Trump’s assertion that the memorandum of understanding is over increases the likelihood of the Strait of Hormuz closing again, as a new cycle of escalation has begun.”^{[Marine News Magazine]} Ship-tracking data showed at least four tankers had turned around and were no longer attempting to transit the strait.^{[Marine News Magazine]}

Robert Edwards, chief investment officer at Edwards Asset Management, wrote in a note: “This is the most significant escalation in Iran tensions since the ceasefire took effect nearly a month ago, and the classic market playbook is unfolding: oil up, bond yields up, stocks down.” But he added, “Any downside in equities over the next few weeks is a buying opportunity. I still see the S&P 500 at 7,700 by year-end, driven by earnings strength that has held up well through this period of geopolitical uncertainty.”^{[New York Post]}

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading platform IG, said: “The imminent threat of war between the U.S. and Iran — or at least the latter re-blockading the strait — has triggered a sell-off in European markets that are highly sensitive to energy costs.”^{[The Times of Israel]}

Other Market Reactions and What’s Next

In broader markets, risk-off sentiment also pushed bond yields higher. Investopedia data showed the 10-year Treasury yield rising to about 4.60%, up more than 4 basis points from Tuesday’s close.^{[Investopedia]} Meanwhile, gold futures fell 2.5% to $4,055 an ounce, and Bitcoin slid from an overnight high of about $63,700 to around $61,800.^{[Investopedia]} The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, edged up 0.1% to 101.15.^{[Investopedia]}

The oil surge also turned attention to U.S. gasoline prices. According to the New York Post, AAA data showed the national average gasoline price at about $3.80 a gallon on Wednesday, well below the wartime high of $4.56 but roughly flat in recent days. Given the typical one- to two-week lag between oil markets and the pump, the new tensions could prevent gasoline from falling below the $3 mark.^{[New York Post]}

Investors were also watching for the release of the Fed’s June meeting minutes at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, looking for more policy clues from new Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting.^{[New York Post]}

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