SpaceX Stock Hovers a Dollar Above IPO Price as Post-Listing Rally Evaporates

SpaceX (SPCX) stock is flirting with a break below its IPO price just one month after listing. As of after-hours trading on July 14, the stock was at $133.72, up 2.83% from the prior close of $130.04, but it had earlier hit an intraday low of $122.64. The previous session (July 13) saw SPCX close down 4.24% at $130.04, with an intraday low near $138 — just a stone’s throw from the $135 IPO price.^[CNBC] The move marks a dramatic valuation reset for the space exploration company, which set records for the largest-ever IPO.

From $225 Peak to Near IPO Price: A Rollercoaster Month

SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq on June 12 at an opening price of $150. The stock surged as much as 25% on its first day and in the days that followed, hitting an all-time high of roughly $225 and a market cap near $2.67 trillion.^{[Business Insider]} Since then, the stock has been in steady decline. According to MarketWatch, SpaceX has shed over $800 billion in market value from its peak and now ranks as the seventh-largest U.S. company, trailing Broadcom (AVGO).^{[MarketWatch]}

On July 13, SPCX fell for a second straight session, hitting an intraday low near $138 — just 3% above the $135 IPO price.^[CNBC] While the stock bounced slightly to $133.72 in after-hours trading on July 14, it remains below the $150 opening price and briefly dipped under the $135 mark during the session.

Multiple Headwinds: Profitability Doubts, Rising Competition, and AI Narrative Fade

Analysts point to several factors weighing on SpaceX’s stock. First, questions about the company’s profitability persist. According to reports cited by Futurism, despite a valuation that once approached $2 trillion, SpaceX lost nearly $5 billion in 2025.^[Futurism] Investors are skeptical of its strategic pivot into new businesses like “orbital data centers,” casting doubt on near-term earnings prospects.

Second, international competition is heating up. Chinese state media recently showed footage of a Long March 10B rocket booster being captured by a sea-based recovery platform, signaling major progress in reusable rocket technology. Meanwhile, a Japanese experimental reusable rocket successfully completed a takeoff and landing test over the weekend.^[Futurism]

Third, the market’s enthusiasm for the AI narrative is cooling. “Everyone looks at SpaceX as an AI story,” CFRA research analyst Keith Snyder told the BBC. “Anything associated with Musk gets people excited, but this is also the first time people feel they can invest in something that’s being marketed as an AI play.”^[Futurism] As the broader AI frenzy fades, high-valuation names like SpaceX face more intense scrutiny.

Analysts Divided: From $115 to $300

Wall Street is split on where SpaceX goes from here. Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish stance with a $300 price target, arguing the company still has significant upside.^[Futurism] CFRA’s Keith Snyder is more cautious, forecasting the stock could fall further to $115.^[Futurism]

Mergermarket analyst Samuel Kerr offered a nuanced take on investor pain: “If you’re an IPO investor, you’re fine. But if you bought in the first few days, you’re not feeling great right now.”^[Futurism] The divergence highlights a fundamental disagreement over SpaceX’s valuation.

Not Alone: Hot IPOs Face a Broad Retreat

SpaceX’s struggles are not unique. Business Insider notes that several high-profile 2026 IPOs have followed a similar “pop and drop” pattern.^{[Business Insider]}

AI chip company Cerebras (CBRS) surged 68% on its May 14 debut, but as of July 13, the stock was down 40% from its first-day price.^{[Business Insider]} South Korean memory chip maker SK Hynix’s American Depositary Receipts (ticker: SKHY) priced on July 9 and initially spiked to around $175, but quickly retreated. On July 13 alone, SKHY fell nearly 10%, and it now trades just above its $149 offering price.^{[Business Insider]}

Business Insider attributes the IPO struggles partly to poor market timing — the AI boom is cooling, and investors are raising the bar on earnings expectations. The selloff in Samsung Electronics’ stock, despite strong quarterly results, further underscores the shift in sentiment.^{[Business Insider]}

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