Tesla Q2 Deliveries Beat, Rivian Raises Full-Year Guidance

Tesla (TSLA) and Rivian (RIVN) each released their Q2 2026 delivery figures on July 2. Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, a 25% year-over-year surge that handily beat the Wall Street consensus of 406,024. It was the company’s strongest second quarter ever and its first quarter of year-over-year growth in two years. Rivian delivered 12,194 vehicles in Q2, also exceeding its own expectations, and raised its full-year delivery guidance. Yet as of the close of trading on July 2 (ET), Tesla shares were at $393.45, down 7.49% (-$31.85) from the prior close of $425.30, after hitting an intraday low of $389.30.^[Electrek]

Tesla Q2 Deliveries Beat, Inventory Drawdown a Key Highlight

Tesla produced 451,758 vehicles in Q2 and delivered 480,126. The high-volume Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 442,936 of production and 467,762 of deliveries; other models (Model S, Model X, Cybertruck, and Semi) combined for 8,822 produced and 12,364 delivered.^[Electrek] Notably, deliveries exceeded production, drawing down roughly 28,000 units of inventory — a sharp reversal from Q1, when Tesla had built up a surplus of about 50,000 vehicles.^[Electrek]

Compared to the same period last year, Tesla’s Q2 deliveries rose 25% (vs. 384,122 in Q2 2025) and were up 34% sequentially from Q1 (358,023). The number not only blew past the analyst consensus of 406,024 but also exceeded the most optimistic forecasts from Goldman Sachs and Barclays, which had called for 418,000 to 420,000.^[Electrek] Despite the strong Q2, the tally still fell short of the company’s all-time record of 497,099 set in Q3 2025, when U.S. consumers rushed to buy ahead of the expiration of the federal $7,500 EV tax credit on September 30, 2025.^[Electrek]

Energy Business Grows, but Slightly Misses Estimates

Tesla also deployed 13.5 GWh of energy storage products in Q2, up more than 40% year-over-year (vs. 9.6 GWh in Q2 2025). However, that figure came in slightly below the analyst consensus of roughly 13.8 GWh.^[Electrek] The energy business has been one of Tesla’s steadiest growth drivers, but this quarter’s performance fell short of the highest expectations.

Rivian Deliveries Beat, Full-Year Guidance Raised

Rivian produced 12,613 vehicles and delivered 12,194 in Q2, both exceeding analyst estimates. Analysts had expected deliveries of roughly 10,600.^{[Automotive World]} Rivian said deliveries topped its prior guidance of 9,000 to 11,000, driven by strong sequential growth in EDV (electric delivery vans) and R1 models, as well as the start of R2 deliveries.^{[Rivian Newsroom]}

Based on first-half momentum and its outlook for the rest of the year, Rivian raised its 2026 full-year delivery guidance from 62,000-67,000 to 65,000-70,000.^[Reuters] Shares of Rivian rose as much as 7% in pre-market trading on the news.^{[Automotive World]} Rivian also announced it will report Q2 earnings after the market close on July 30, with a conference call at 5:00 p.m. ET that day.^{[Rivian Newsroom]}

Gap with BYD Narrows, but Competitive Landscape Unchanged

Despite Tesla’s big delivery jump, BYD — the world’s largest pure-EV maker — delivered 557,090 battery-electric vehicles in Q2, still leading Tesla by roughly 77,000 units.^[Electrek] The two are moving in opposite directions, however: BYD’s BEV deliveries fell about 8% year-over-year, while Tesla’s rose 25%. A year ago, BYD’s lead over Tesla was more than 220,000 vehicles.^[Electrek]

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