News
Kevin Warsh chaired his first Fed meeting and kept rates at 3.5%–3.75% — but the real story was a dot plot that erased expected cuts and now leans toward a hike, paired with a stripped-down 130-word statement and the death of forward guidance.
News
U.S. wholesale prices blew past expectations in May, with PPI rising 1.1% month-over-month and 6.5% year-over-year — the hottest reading since November 2022. A 23%-plus spike in gasoline prices did most of the damage.
News
The U.S. added 172,000 jobs in May, nearly double what Wall Street expected, keeping the unemployment rate at 4.3%. Treasuries sold off and stocks tumbled as markets repriced the odds of Fed rate cuts this year.
News
The April PCE report — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — drops Friday and it's the cleanest macro signal before the June FOMC meeting. Nasdaq, AI names, banks, small caps, and the dollar are all in play.
Macro
The oil price has already answered the question: WTI closed 5/18 at $103.45 with a $108.70 intraday spike as Persian Gulf energy facilities burn. Warsh confirmed 54-45, Powell stays as chair pro tempore, April CPI re-accelerates to +3.8% — and Tuesday's NSC meeting on Iran military…