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Washington and Tokyo staged a rare joint yen-buying intervention to halt the currency's slide to 40-year lows. Treasury Secretary Bessent is now pushing to expand a Fed facility that could pull the central bank deeper into the fight.
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Oil topped $100 a barrel for the first time since May as the 10-year yield hit 4.71%. Kalshi traders are now betting Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will say “shock” in his press conference this week.
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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told Congress Tuesday that June’s CPI improvement doesn’t mean “mission accomplished” on inflation, and refused to tip the Fed’s hand on rate moves. Markets slashed July hike odds to 17% as oil prices climbed on escalating Middle East tensions.
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The Fed’s June meeting minutes show a rare, evenly matched split between officials who favor holding rates steady and those pushing for hikes. Markets may be overpricing the risk of near-term tightening.
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The Fed’s June meeting minutes, due Wednesday, are expected to reveal deep internal divisions over the rate path. Markets price just one hike this year, but September odds still sit at 60%.
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The Fed's June meeting minutes, Delta Air Lines and PepsiCo earnings, and services PMI data will test markets next week. Traders are parsing signals on the rate path after a tech wobble and a softer jobs report.