SpaceX’s First Post-IPO Earnings Land This Week—Stock Already 20% Below Offer Price

SpaceX (SPCX) delivers its first quarterly report as a public company Tuesday after the bell—the first time it opens the books to public investors since completing the largest IPO on record in June. As of the July 31, 2026 close, SPCX sat at $96.19, up 0.03% from the prior close of $96.16; with U.S. markets closed for the weekend, the quote reflects the last trading day's close, with no live trading. The session opened at $96.075, traded as high as $96.59, and bottomed out at $95.6.^{[Investopedia]}

Seven Weeks In, the Stock Is Down 20% From Its IPO Price

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share in June—the largest initial public offering on record, per Investopedia. Shares ripped higher in the first sessions, topping $225, before steadily fading. Last week, the stock briefly dipped below the offer price, touching a low of $107.^{[Investopedia]}

Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas, in a preview of the print, notes SPCX is now 50% below its all-time high and 20% below the IPO price—the core question for investors at this stage, he says.^{[Foreign Policy Journal]}

Investopedia attributes the cooling enthusiasm to operational setbacks and a broader pullback in AI stocks. Tech giants are funding ever-costlier AI data-center builds with fresh equity and debt, raising questions about when the spending pays off. Investors have recently dumped shares of several Magnificent 7 members—including Musk's own Tesla (TSLA)—after companies signaled their AI spending spree is far from over.^{[Investopedia]}

Analysts Are Watching Starlink, AI, and the Cursor Deal

Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas flags the key metrics to watch in this print: revenue, EBITDA, Starlink subscriber counts, ARPU, AI pricing, and Cursor's annualized recurring revenue. Jonas expects management to offer only limited guidance, but anticipates updates on the Cursor acquisition, the latest Grok release, and the drivers of Starlink broadband adoption.^{[Foreign Policy Journal]}

Analysts currently expect SpaceX to post $6.8 billion in revenue for the quarter, with a loss of 29 cents per share.^{[Foreign Policy Journal]}

Investopedia notes SpaceX's report will put a spotlight on Silicon Valley's AI investment boom and the supply chain underpinning it. The massive AI outlays from SpaceX and its peers have been a tailwind for chip, memory, and data-storage stocks, which have surged this year on heavy buying from the builders.^{[Investopedia]}

A Crowded Week: CAT and AMD Share the Stage

SpaceX isn't the only heavyweight on this week's calendar. Caterpillar (CAT) reports Q2 results before Tuesday's open. The stock is one of the best performers in the Dow this year, up more than 41%, powered by strong demand in the power-and-energy segment that feeds AI data centers. But on July 29, Baird's Mircea Dobre downgraded the stock from "Outperform" to "Neutral," slashing his price target from $1,200 to $900 on rising regulatory headwinds for AI data centers—the stock fell nearly 7% that day. "The landscape is shifting on multiple fronts," Dobre said. "New York's recent moratorium on data center construction is the most prominent example of a broader trend of regulatory action at the state and local level."^{[Foreign Policy Journal]}

Wall Street expects Caterpillar to earn $6.20 per share in Q2, up 31.4% year over year, on revenue of $19.2 billion, up 15.7%.^{[Foreign Policy Journal]}

AMD also reports Tuesday after the close. Analysts expect earnings per share of $1.61, well above the 48 cents from a year ago, on revenue of $11.3 billion, up 47%, fueled by surging demand for data-center chips. Susquehanna's Christopher Rolland anticipates "better earnings and guidance," citing AMD's growing share in MI350 GPUs and EPYC CPUs, plus longer-term AI growth driven by more advanced Helios and MI450 chips and hyperscaler customers including Anthropic and Meta.^{[Foreign Policy Journal]}

Consumer and Tech Earnings Flood In, Macro Data Follows

Plenty of consumer and tech names report this week too. Per Investopedia, streaming service Spotify, media giant Paramount Skydance, and Walt Disney (DIS) all post results, as do McDonald's, Wendy's, and the parent of Burger King and Popeyes.^{[Investopedia]}

Foreign Policy Journal's rundown also flags earnings from Marriott, Tyson Foods, Palantir Technologies, Eli Lilly, Uber, Airbnb, Cloudflare, and dozens of other large caps across energy, healthcare, tech, and consumer goods.^{[Foreign Policy Journal]}

On the macro front, TradingKey's weekly preview flags the July U.S. non-farm payrolls report as a key focus for markets this week.^[TradingKey]

Looking back at last week, Investopedia notes major indices took a sharp midweek hit but closed the week higher, powered by a strong Friday session. The Dow posted its biggest one-day drop in 15 months on Wednesday, when the Fed held rates steady. Stocks began recovering Thursday after data showed the Fed's preferred inflation gauge cooled in June. Mixed big-tech earnings last week added to the volatility. For the month, the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.2%, the Dow edged higher, and the S&P 500 slipped slightly.^{[Investopedia]}

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